A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."